[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF 21/2312UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 162/116

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   3332 2323
      Darwin               10   3322 2323
      Townsville            9   3321 2323
      Learmonth            13   4323 2323
      Canberra             11   3332 2322
      Hobart               15   3442 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 JAN : 
      Darwin                3   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra              9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18   2235 4334     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan    30    Active to Minor storm 
24 Jan    12    Unsettled 
25 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 20 January and 
is current for interval 22-24 January. Chance of unsettled to 
active with a chance of minor storm conditions are expected for 
the 23 Jan following CMEs observed on 20 JAN after 1849 and 2119 
UT from region 9313. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor     
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Chance SWFs over the next couple days. Depressed MUFs 
may be expected on the 23 JAN following shocks anticipated arrival 
of shocks associated with the recent flare/CME activity of region 
9313. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 Jan    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15 to 30% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 5 to 15% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan    80    10 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
24 Jan   120    near predicted monthly values 
25 Jan   120    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 22 January 
and is current for interval 23-24 January. Depressed conditions 
were observed on 22 JAN probably triggered by unsettled and active 
to minor storm levels of geomagnetic conditions due to long periods 
of IMF Bz observed on 21 JAN related to sector boundary crossings. 
Chance of depressed ionospheric conditions are expected on the 
23 JAN following the anticipated arrival of shocks associated 
with the recent CMEs produced by region 9313. 

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