[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 166/120

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            180/133


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        8   2221 3322
      Darwin                6   2111 3222
      Townsville            6   2111 3223
      Learmonth            10   3222 3322
      Canberra              8   2221 3323
      Hobart                8   2221 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JAN : 
      Darwin                4   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0000 1322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan    15    Unsettled, chance of active periods. 
13 Jan    10    Unsettled 
14 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 Jan   154

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jan   110    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 


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