[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/1N    1016UT  probable   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 163/117

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            175/129


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   1110 2323
      Darwin                4   0110 1323
      Townsville            4   1010 1323
      Learmonth             5   2100 2323
      Canberra              4   1110 2313
      Hobart                4   1110 2312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JAN : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             12   (Quiet)
      Hobart               14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1101 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan     9    Unsettled 
12 Jan     7    Quiet to unsettled 
13 Jan    10    Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
10 Jan   165

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 


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