[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN  MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 177/131

GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jan             09 Jan             10 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            180/133            185/138

COMMENT: A solar filament erupted from the western limb around 
04UT, filament not considered to be very geoeffective due to 
extreme westward location. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   1121 1122
      Darwin                4   2111 0223
      Townsville            3   1121 1112
      Learmonth             9   --32 123-
      Canberra              3   1021 1112
      Hobart                4   1131 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2121 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jan    12    Unsettled, chance of active periods. 
09 Jan    13    Unsettled, chance of active periods. 
10 Jan     4    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: A coronal hole may cause a very mild increase in geomagnetic 
activity may be experienced 8-9 Jan, although recurrent patterns 
suggest this is unlikely. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Chance of mild degradation local night hours mid to 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
07 Jan   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Western Australia MUFs depressed 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 


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