[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 179/132

GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jan             08 Jan             09 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            180/133

COMMENT: A isolated coronal hole is visible in the Sun's southern 
hemisphere. A collection of sunspot groups are rotating around 
the east limb. Solar activity may increase if these regions show 
growth. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   2222 2212
      Darwin                5   2221 1212
      Townsville            4   1211 1212
      Learmonth             6   2222 2212
      Canberra              5   1222 2202
      Hobart                5   2222 2101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1111 1323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Jan    12    Unsettled 
09 Jan    13    Unsettled 
COMMENT: A coronal hole may cause a very mild increase in geomagnetic 
activity may be experienced 8-9 Jan, although recurrent patterns 
suggest this is unlikely. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Chance of mild degradation local night hours mid to 
high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 Jan   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Some spread F local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depression observed early in UT day at some southern 
region sites. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060