[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 176/130

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            175/129

COMMENT: A coronal hole is just past the centre of the solar 
disk, in the Sun's southern hemisphere. A solar region roattaing 
onto the solar disk may produce M class activity over the next 
few days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        2   1110 1023
      Darwin                2   1101 1023
      Townsville            2   -110 1013
      Learmonth             4   2111 1122
      Canberra              2   1110 1023
      Hobart                2   1110 2012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   2132 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: The coronal hole may cause a very mild increase in geomagnetic 
activity may be experienced 8-9 Jan, although recurrent patterns 
suggest this is unlikely. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
07 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Good Hf conditions expected for today. Chance of mild 
degradation local night hours on days 2 and 3 of forecast. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
05 Jan   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 

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