[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 137/91

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        7   1122 2322
      Darwin                9   2322 2322
      Townsville            6   1122 2312
      Learmonth             7   2122 2323
      Canberra              6   0122 2323
      Hobart                6   1122 2311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1000 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Feb     7    Quiet 
22 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Unsettled period of geomagnetic activity was observed 
between 1530 and 1830UT. Quiet to unsettled levels should prevail 
over the following days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 Feb   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian, Southern Australian and New Zealand Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb   140    near predicted monthly values 
21 Feb   140    near predicted monthly values 
22 Feb   140    near predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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