[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 132/86

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             140/94
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        2   1110 1112
      Darwin                2   1110 0111
      Townsville            1   0100 1113
      Learmonth             5   2211 1223
      Canberra              2   0110 1111
      Hobart                2   1210 1101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1001 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb     7    Quiet 
20 Feb     6    Quiet 
21 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 16 February 
and is current for interval 17-19 February. Active to minor storm 
levels of geomagnetic activity expected early on 18 feb did not 
eventuate. Quiet conditions will prevail over the following days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs expected on 18 feb did not eventuate. 
Normal MUFs are expected over the following days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
18 Feb   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian, Southern Australian and New Zealand Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb   130    near predicted monthly values 
20 Feb   135    near predicted monthly values 
21 Feb   135    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 16 February 
and is current for interval 18-19 February. Depressed ionospheric 
conditions expected for 18 feb did not eventuate. Normal conditions 
will prevail over the following days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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