[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 146/100

GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Feb             22 Feb             23 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            150/105


A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0054UT on 20 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        8   2213 3223
      Darwin                9   2223 3223
      Townsville            8   2213 3223
      Learmonth            12   3313 3233
      Canberra              7   1113 3212
      Hobart                5   1113 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1122 2312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Feb     7    Quiet 
23 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled levels should prevail over the following 
days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs were observed for Southern Australian 
and New Zealand regions after local dawn. Normal MUFs are expected 
over the following days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 Feb   116

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% after dawn,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values the rest of the day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Feb   145    near predicted monthly values 
22 Feb   140    near predicted monthly values 
23 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were depressed by 20% after dawn 
for Southern Australian and New Zealand regions, cause unknown. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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