[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 255/205

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Dec             25 Dec             26 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   260/210            265/216            270/221
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was again mildly southward for much of the UT day (5nT). 
Large solar region in north-west has flare potential but is yet 
to produce flare activity. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9718 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 24 Dec. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2223 2212
      Darwin               5   2112 2213
      Learmonth            8   2113 3--2
      Canberra             7   2223 2213
      Hobart               7   2223 2212
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-33 2222
      Davis(Ant)          15   3--4 3312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 DEC : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2233 2221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Dec     3    Quiet 
26 Dec     3    Quiet 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed at higher latiutudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
23 Dec   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Dec   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
25 Dec   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
26 Dec   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed southern region 
local night hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    93800 K  Bz:  -5 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060