[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 01

Tue Dec 25 09:51:10 EST 2001

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF 23/2336UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M1/1N    0032UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M3/--    1400UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 275/227

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   280/233            275/227            270/221
COMMENT: A small discontinuity was observed in the solar wind 
around 2330UT on 23 Dec. Solar wind speed then gradually rose 
(presumably coronal hole) until around 05UT when a second larger 
discontinuity was observed. Solar wind speed then increased to 
nearly 600km/sec around 12 UT 24 Dec, and the north south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was strongly southward (20nT) 06-08UT. 
Both these discontinuites were not clear and were not auto detected.
Due to the magnitude of the southward IMF observed, it appears 
both CME (unknown origin) and coronal hole signatures were present. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 24 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      26   3454 4434
      Darwin              18   3343 4334
      Learmonth           23   3353 4433
      Canberra            25   2454 4434
      Hobart              28   2454 4533
      Casey(Ant)          17   3--4 3333
      Davis(Ant)          42   356- 5534
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 DEC : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2123 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec    12    Unsettled 
26 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Dec     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Two periods of minor storm activity observed overnight. 
Activity followed probable sudden impulse in geomagnetic field. The origin 
of this impulse is unknown. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed at mid to high latiutudes, 
local night hours in association with unexpected geomagnetic 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
24 Dec   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
26 Dec   140    near predicted monthly values/enhanced 10-15% 
27 Dec   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 24 December 
and is current for interval 25 December only. Depressed MUFs 
observed after local dawn this morning following unexpected overnight 
geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    51900 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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