[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 243/192

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Dec             24 Dec             25 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            250/200            250/200
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains mildly elevated at 400 km/sec. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
was again mildly southward for much of the UT day (5-15nT). Solar 
region which was growing appears to have become less active, 
however region still remains flare capable.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9718 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 24 Dec. A solar filament was
reported to have erupted from the south-east quadrant of the
solar disk, but is not considered geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3133 1122
      Darwin               5   2122 1123
      Learmonth            7   3222 1122
      Canberra             6   2133 1011
      Hobart               6   2133 1011
      Casey(Ant)          15   4-43 2223
      Davis(Ant)           9   2--- -232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   1222 3443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Dec    12    Unsettled 
24 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Dec     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods may be experienced on day 1 
of forecast due to coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Fair-Normal    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
22 Dec   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Dec   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Dec   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
25 Dec   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT:MUFs are expected to return to enhanced levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    95000 K  Bz:  -5 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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