[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 234/184

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   240/189            240/189            240/189
COMMENT: A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1339UT 
on 21 Dec. Solar wind speed currently mildly elevated at 450 km/sec. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
was southward by up 15nT after 13UT. The weak discontinuity may 
be the signature of entry into a coronal hole higher speed wind stream. 
A moderately sized isolated coronal hole is visible near the 
south/centre of the solar disk. Growing solar region now in centre 
of solar disk remains very flare capable. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   2322 3433
      Darwin              11   2222 2433
      Learmonth           10   1222 2432
      Canberra            12   2222 3434
      Hobart              12   2222 2444
      Casey(Ant)          17   -4-3 3333
      Davis(Ant)          20   34-- 442-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1012 2321     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
23 Dec    12    Unsettled 
24 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods expected again next 1-2 days particularly 
if the IMF remains southward with moderately elevated solar wind 
speeds. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed at higher latiutudes, 
and again expected for today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
21 Dec   166

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec   130    depressed 10%/near to 10% above predicted monthly values 
23 Dec   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Dec   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs have been recently enhanced with respect to the 
monthly T. However, after local dawn this morning MUFs are running 
near to slightly below monthly values in southern region Aus/NZ, 
probably in association with southward IMF and mildly elevated 
solar wind speeds/densities. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    63200 K  Bz:  -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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