[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG: GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 221/171

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Dec             22 Dec             23 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            215/165            215/165
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was again mildly southward by 5nT for much of the UT day. 
A moderately sized isolated coronal hole is visible near the 
south/centre of the solar disk. A solar region just north east 
of the centre of the solar disk has shown rapid grwoth overnight. 
Solar activity may increase if this region continues to develop. 
Some activity also reported on south-east limb. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1222 2212
      Darwin               4   1112 2213
      Learmonth            5   0-22 221-
      Canberra             4   2112 2112
      Hobart               3   1121 1111
      Casey(Ant)           7   ---3 220-
      Davis(Ant)          15   333- -3--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   3133 2322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Dec    13    Unsettled to Active 
22 Dec    12    Unsettled 
23 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Weak recurrent activity possible 21-23 Dec (coronal 
hole). 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours 
at mid-high latitudes next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
20 Dec   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Dec   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Dec   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Dec   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    73900 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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