[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0047UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.3    0549UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 233/183

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Dec             06 Dec             07 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            225/175            220/170


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 04 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   4232 3233
      Darwin               9   3222 2233
      Learmonth            9   3222 2233
      Canberra             9   3232 2132
      Hobart              12   4332 2133
      Casey(Ant)          21   4--- 4333
      Davis(Ant)          24   4--4 4343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1101 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Dec    12    Unsettled 
06 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Dec     6    Quiet 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
04 Dec   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
   Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15%. 


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Dec   150    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
06 Dec   160    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Dec   160    about 15% above predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:   9 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060