[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN    ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 235/185

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Dec             05 Dec             06 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            225/175            225/175




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   2322 3344
      Darwin              10   1222 2344
      Learmonth           11   2222 2343
      Canberra             8   1322 2234
      Hobart               8   1322 2233
      Casey(Ant)          17   3--3 3344
      Davis(Ant)          19   2433 4344
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              61   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1001 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Dec    12    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 
05 Dec    12    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 
06 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind data parameters suggest the Earth is presently 
under the influence of a relatively slow coronal hole wind stream 
which may produce isolated active periods for 4-5 December. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly elevated geomagnetic activity levels may cause 
small depressions in MUF values at times for 4 December. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 Dec   188

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Normal to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Dec   140    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
05 Dec   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
06 Dec   160    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly elevated geomagnetic activity levels may cause 
small depressions in MUF values at times for 4 December. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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