[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1500UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M2/--    2204UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 245/195

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Dec             04 Dec             05 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            245/195            245/195


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 2222
      Darwin               6   2122 2223
      Learmonth            5   2121 2222
      Canberra             7   2222 2222
      Hobart               6   2222 1222
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 2223
      Davis(Ant)          10   2323 3221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1132 3213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Dec     6    Quiet 
04 Dec    12    Unsettled 
05 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: A coronal hole solar wind stream may produce isolated 
active periods on 4-5 December. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
02 Dec   183

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Normal to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Dec   170    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
04 Dec   170    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
05 Dec   160    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on 30 November 
and is current for interval 1-3 December (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:   13.3 p/cc  Temp:    23600 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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