[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**  MAG:GREEN   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.8    1555UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M1/SF    1744UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 221/171

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Dec             03 Dec             04 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            220/170            220/170


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9690 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 2 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3233 3313
      Darwin               9   2123 3313
      Learmonth           10   3123 3313
      Canberra            10   2233 3223
      Hobart               9   2233 2223
      Casey(Ant)          13   3343 320-
      Davis(Ant)          15   3343 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 DEC : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1001 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
03 Dec    12    Unsettled 
04 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 30 November 
and is current for interval 1-2 December. The weak shock observed 
in the solar wind data at 1730UT on 30 November is now considered 
to be the CME anticipated for early 1 December. The CME did not 
appear to be largely earthward directed and hence had little 
effect on the geomagnetic field. Other CMEs associated with recent 
flare activity, do not appear to be largely Earthward directed. 
A coronal hole solar wind stream is expected to produce active 
periods on 4-5 December. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Elevated geomagnetic activity from the CME due on 1 
December has not eventuated and hence HF conditions have remained 
mostly normal to enhanced. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
01 Dec   188

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Normal to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Dec   160    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Dec   170    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Dec   170    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on 30 November 
and is current for interval 1-3 December (SWFs) . Elevated geomagnetic 
activity from the CME due on 1 December has not eventuated and 
hence HF conditions have remained mostly normal to enhanced. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    34900 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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