[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**  MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.7    0106UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.6    1418UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M3.2    2001UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 226/176

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Dec             02 Dec             03 Dec
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            220/170            220/170



Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9690 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 2 Dec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2111 0012
      Darwin               1   2100 0012
      Learmonth            2   2000 0022
      Canberra             1   1010 0013
      Hobart               1   1110 0011
      Casey(Ant)           8   3332 111-
      Davis(Ant)           8   3322 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   2111 1110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Dec    25    Unsettled to active levels with possible minor 
                storm periods. 
02 Dec    15    Unsettled to active 
03 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 30 November 
and is current for interval 1-2 December. A weak shock was observed 
in the solar wind at 1730UT and produced a small impulse in the 
IPS magnetometer data of less than 10nT at 1824UT. The partial 
halo CME observed in association with an M6-flare at 1635UT on 
28 November is expected to impact the Earth on 1 December and 
produce mildly elevated levels of geomagnetic activity. This 
CME, and other CME activity associated with recent flare activity, 
does not appear to be largely Earthward directed. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mildly enhanced geomagnetic activity anticipated for 
1 December may produce slightly degraded HF conditions for that 
day. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
30 Nov   180

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Normal to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Dec   120    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
02 Dec   160    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Dec   160    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 78 was issued on 30 November 
and is current for interval 1-2 December. Mildly enhanced geomagnetic 
activity anticipated for 1 December may produce slightly degraded 
HF conditions for that day. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    84100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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