[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 237/187

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Dec             07 Dec             08 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            225/175            220/170

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   4323 2233
      Darwin               7   3222 1223
      Learmonth           11   4322 1132
      Canberra             7   3222 1223
      Hobart               8   3322 1223
      Casey(Ant)          18   4--4 3233
      Davis(Ant)          23   4444 3343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 DEC : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3212 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Dec     6    Quiet 
07 Dec     6    Quiet 
08 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
05 Dec   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for December: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Dec   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Dec   125    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Dec   120    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:   184000 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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