[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0638UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 192/144

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     Moderate to High   Moderate to High   Moderate ro High
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            200/152            200/152
COMMENT: Solar region of interest remains magnetically complex 
and M/X flare capable. A shock was observed in the solar wind 
at 1918 UT, with the solar wind speed jumping from around 450 
to 550km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has been northward, so far, following shock arrival. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 27 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2311 3232
      Darwin              10   3312 ----
      Townsville           4   1210 2222
      Learmonth            5   2211 21-3
      Canberra            11   1321 324-
      Hobart              10   1311 3242
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 AUG : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   3133 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug    25    Active to minor storm 
29 Aug    13    Unsettled to active 
30 Aug    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 25 August and 
is current for interval 27-28 August. A sudden impulse of 25nT 
was observed in the geomagnetic field at 1951UT. Active to minor 
storm conditions may follow, activity level of event is likely 
to be reduced if IMF remains northward. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected 28 Aug. Degradation 
may not be as strong as initially expected due to the IMF 
remaining northward post-shock. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Aug   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug   110    near predicted monthly values 
29 Aug    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
30 Aug   110    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 24 August 
and is current for interval 25-28 August (SWFs) . MUFs have not 
become depressed after local dawn this morning following geomagnetic 
impulse from recent mass ejection. If geomagnetic activity increases 
during local night hours tonight, then there is a chance for 
depressed MUFs for southern region only tomorrow morning. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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