[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1306UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 190/143

GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Aug             28 Aug             29 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            200/152            200/152
COMMENT: The large region in the south-east has shown some magnetic 
simplification. However, the region remains flare capable as 
magnetic complexity appears to be persisting in the trailer spots 
of the spot group. Solar wind speed moderately elevated at around 
400km/sec probably due to coronal hole. ACE EPAM data may be 
beginning to show shock precursor, with a slight upward trend 
toward end of UT day. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2233 2123
      Darwin              11   3333 2123
      Townsville           3   1121 0123
      Learmonth           11   3233 3123
      Canberra            10   2333 2223
      Hobart               9   2333 211-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 AUG : 
      Darwin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              58   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   1112 3443     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Aug    40    Minor storm 
28 Aug    25    active 
29 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 25 August and 
is current for interval 27-28 August. Disturbance expected to 
begin during second half of 27 Aug due to coronal mass ejection 
associated with X5 event. Also, coronal hole induced activity 
is also expected during the forecast period. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Normal-poor   
28 Aug      Fair-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-normal   
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected 27-28 Aug, particularly 
local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Aug   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Aug   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 
28 Aug    80    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
29 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 24 August 
and is current for interval 25-28 August (SWFs) . Degraded HF 
conditions are expected local night on 27 Aug, with depressed 
MUFs likely after local dawn on 28 Aug. 

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