[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    0012UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M1/SF    0840UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
 M1/SN    1611UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 199/151

GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Aug             30 Aug             31 Aug
Activity     Moderate-High      Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            205/156            210/161
COMMENT: The north-south component of the IMF remained northward 
over past 24 hours. Solar wind speed declined from 600 to 500km/sec. 
Solar region 9591 still has potential for isolated major flare.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3222 2222
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           2   2100 1112
      Learmonth            8   3222 2222
      Canberra            10   2322 323-
      Hobart              10   3322 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 AUG : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              88   (Minor storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             12   2311 3344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Aug    13    Unsettled 
30 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Almost no geomagnetic activity of note following recent 
sudden impulse. Lack of activity probably due to northward IMF. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were not very degraded due to lack of geomagnetic 
activity following impulse in geomagnetic field. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
28 Aug   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Aug   120    near predicted monthly values 
30 Aug   120    near predicted monthly values 
31 Aug   120    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions are now not ecpected due to lack 
of obvernight geomagnetic activity. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060