[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 147/101

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mildly southward for most of the UT day. ACE EPAM 47-65Kev 
precursor data shows an increasing trend, giving confidence in 
CME arrival, although flux levels are currently below alert thresholds. 
Isolated low level M class flare activity possible, with decreasing 
flare probability over next few days due to region simplification. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1121
      Darwin               3   1111 0122
      Townsville           1   1001 0010
      Learmonth            3   1110 2---
      Canberra             3   1101 1120
      Hobart               3   1211 1110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 AUG : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3223 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug    12    Unsettled 
17 Aug    30    Active to Minor storm 
18 Aug    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 14 August and 
is current for interval 17-18 August. CME induced acitivity from 
recent erupting solar filament is likely 17-18 Aug. Chance for 
isolated major storm periods local night hours 17 Aug. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event - very mild 10Mev proton flux enhacement
	    observed over past 24hours.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
18 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected 17-18 Aug due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity from recent CME. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 Aug   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug   115    near predicted monthly values 
17 Aug    95    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
18 Aug    90    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 15 August 
and is current for interval 17-18 August. Mild depression expected 
late 17, early 18 Aug due to CME related geomagnetic activity. 
Depression expected to be mostly limited to southern region Aus/NZ. 
Degraded conditions expected local night hours southern region 
during interval. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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