[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 147/101

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94

COMMENT: CME observed 14 Aug associated with a disappering solar 
filament N26W10. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   1322 3222
      Darwin               9   2322 3222
      Townsville           4   1221 1212
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Canberra             9   1323 3222
      Hobart              11   1323 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 AUG : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19   4533 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug    12    Unsettled 
16 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Aug    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 14 August and 
is current for interval 17-18 August. CME induced acitivity is 
likely 17 Aug. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
17 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Aug   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug   120    near predicted monthly values 
16 Aug   115    near predicted monthly values 
17 Aug   100    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly depressed conditions possible 17 Aug. 

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