[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 152/107

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Unsettled to active 
at mid latitudes, active to minor storm at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 13 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   2333 4222
      Darwin              12   3333 3223
      Townsville           8   2222 3221
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Canberra            15   2333 4332
      Hobart              13   2333 4222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 AUG : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   2223 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug    16    Unsettled to active 
15 Aug    12    Unsettled 
16 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 9 August and 
is current for interval 12-14 August. The geomagenetic field 
activity is expected to decline to unsettled levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 Aug   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug   110    near predicted monthly values 
15 Aug   100    near predicted monthly values 
16 Aug   110    near predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060