[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 143/97

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99
COMMENT: A large backside full halo coronal mass ejection (non 
geoeffective) was observed around 0040UT on 16 Aug. A strong 
proton event began at around 0140UT. It is possible that protons 
from a backside flare/CME event may reach the earth. Models predict 
that the flux of the event around the backside of the sun must 
be of the order of a 1000 times what we observed, possibly making 
this event one of the largest ever. The backside CME had a symmetrical 
shape around the solar disk implying the solar region that produced 
the event was on the middle longitude of the backside of the 
sun. This may indicate (if the region hasnt blown itself out 
with this event) the possiblity of increased solar activity in 
6-7 days time. EPAM 47-65Kev precursor flux data has past first 
threshold, with some contamination from the proton event. This 
may indicate that the CME from the Aug 14 filament eruption is 
possibly on its way. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   0001 0112
      Darwin               1   1111 0002
      Townsville           0   0000 0111
      Learmonth            4   1011 123-
      Canberra             0   0001 0002
      Hobart               0   0101 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 AUG : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              9   2332 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug    30    Active to Minor storm 
18 Aug    18    active 
19 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 14 August and 
is current for interval 17-18 August. Anticpated geomagnetic 
activity from CME on 14 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 08 2001 0140UT and 
	    is in progress (declining).

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
18 Aug      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Degraded conditions obsevred at high latitudes due to 
proton event. PCA observed 0040-1030UT with a peak absorption 
of around 8dB near 03UT. Conditions at high latitudes should 
briefly improve, before becoming degraded due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity from CME on 14 Aug. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 Aug   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    95    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
18 Aug    90    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
19 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 15 August 
and is current for interval 17-18 August. Mild depression expected 
late 17, early 18 Aug due to anticipated CME (erupting filament 
14 Aug) related geomagnetic activity. Depression expected to 
be mostly limited to southern region Aus/NZ. Degraded conditions 
expected local night hours southern region during interval. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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