[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 148/102

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            160/114
COMMENT: An increasing trend in solar activity is possible over 
the coming days. The Solar region in the north-east remains low 
level M class capable. Another solar region in the south-west 
has shown rapid growth overnight. Also, it appears that an active 
solar region may be roatating onto the solar disk in the south-east 
quadrant. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1111 2322
      Darwin               5   2111 1322
      Townsville           3   0001 1312
      Learmonth            8   1222 2332
      Canberra             5   1011 2321
      Hobart               5   0111 2321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 AUG : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   2243 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests the field should be generally quiet, 
with a weak recurrent pattern 08 Aug. Recurrent forecast may 
be broken if developing solar regions produce CMEs. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed during local night 
hours at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Aug    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Enhanced by 50% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation observed local night hours at high 
latitudes. 

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