[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1531UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 156/110

GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Aug             07 Aug             08 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: M class flares excpected. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
05/0855UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. A possible weak shock was observed in 
the solar wind at 1156UT on 05 Aug. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   1234 3322
      Darwin              13   2234 3322
      Townsville          11   1124 3321
      Learmonth           14   2234 3333
      Canberra            14   1234 4322
      Hobart              14   1234 4322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 AUG : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2222 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled, chance of active periods.
07 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Field was unexpectedly active on 05 Aug during local 
night hours. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
05 Aug   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation observed local night hours at high 
latitudes. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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