[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SN    0307UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 132/86

GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Aug             05 Aug             06 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0624UT 
on 03 Aug. Solar wind speed declined post shock. Shock believed
due to filamant eruption 30-31 July. The interplanetary 
magnetic field briefly fluctuated southward post shock, then returned 
northward. M class flares likely due to region in north-east. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   1242 2222
      Darwin              11   1343 2222
      Townsville           4   0132 1112
      Learmonth           18   2353 3332
      Canberra            10   1342 2222
      Hobart               8   1242 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 AUG : 
      Darwin              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            67   (Active)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1132 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Aug    12    Unsettled, chance of active periods local night.
05 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 3 August and 
is current for interval 3-4 August. Disturbance from filaments 
was mild due to northward IMF. Recurrence suggests active periods 
possible on 04 Aug, then the field is expected to be quiet. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair       
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions observed during local night hours 
last night. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 Aug   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night. Darwin had spead F
      local night hours.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 3 August 
and is current for interval 3-4 August. 

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