[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X2/--    1028UT  probable   all    European
 M1/1N    0304UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 149/104

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B7.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Minor storm 

Estimated Indices 12 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       22   5344 4225
      Darwin               22   5344 422-
      Townsville           18   4244 4225
      Learmonth            22   5344 4223
      Canberra             19   4344 4225
      Hobart               24   5444 4225
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 APR : 
      Darwin               64   (Active)
      Townsville           45   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth            66   (Active)
      Canberra            147   (Severe storm)
      Hobart               NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        45
           Planetary             50                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        69
           Planetary             60   3332 4867     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr    25    Active 
14 Apr    30    Active to minor storm 
15 Apr    30    Active to minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 12 April and 
is current for interval 13-16 April. Further geomagnetic activity 
is expected due to favorably located CME's associated with flares 
M2.3 1326UT/11 and an X2.0 1028UT/12. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 10 04 2001 0930UT and is 
in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
14 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
15 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 Apr    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      PCA.

Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr    90    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
14 Apr    90    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
15 Apr    70    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 12 April 
and is current for interval 14-16 April. Shortwave fadeouts expected 
on daylight HF circuits. Enhanced proton fluxes associated with 
both M7.9 and X2.3 flares from region 9415 on 9 Apr and 10 Apr 
are affecting high-latitude HF comms. Further degraded propagation 
conditions are expected due to favorably located CME's associated 
with flares M2.3 1326UT/11 and an X2.0 1028UT/12. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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