[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 137/91

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             140/94

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Major storm 

Estimated Indices 13 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       34   1246 5543
      Darwin               37   2246 5553
      Townsville           34   1246 5543
      Learmonth            42   2246 6554
      Canberra             34   1246 5544
      Hobart               31   1246 4543
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 APR : 
      Darwin               18   (Quiet)
      Townsville            2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               66   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             38   7655 3312     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr    50    Storm levels 
15 Apr    30    Active to minor storm 
16 Apr    18    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 12 April and 
is current for interval 13-16 April. Observed activity was due 
to the impact of the CME associated with flare M2.3 1326UT/11. 
Further geomagnetic activity is expected during the latter half 
of the 14th from a favourably located CME's associated with flare 
X2.0 1028UT/12. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 0930UT 10/04, Ended at 1120UT 13/04

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Fair           Fair           Poor          
15 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair          

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 Apr   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced 15% to depressed 15% and absorption over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr    60    5 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
15 Apr    70    5 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
16 Apr   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 12 April 
and is current for interval 14-16 April. Shortwave fadeouts possible 
on daylight HF circuits. Enhanced proton fluxes associated with 
both M7.9 and X2.3 flares from region 9415 on 9 Apr and 10 Apr 
are subsiding. Degraded propagation conditions are expected due 
to favorably located CME's associated with flares M2.3 1326UT/11 
and an X2.0 1028UT/12. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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