[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1F    1326UT  probable   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 160/114

GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.7E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Apr             13 Apr             14 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            155/109


A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1526UT on 11 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet until 
sudden commencement at 1440UT then severe storm. 

Estimated Indices 11 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       38   2122 4767
      Darwin               39   2222 4767
      Townsville           25   2122 4657
      Learmonth            42   2222 5767
      Canberra             30   2122 4667
      Hobart               41   2133 4767
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 APR : 
      Darwin               20   (Quiet)
      Townsville            2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             81   (Minor storm)
      Hobart               74   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        50
           Planetary             60                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   3122 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Apr    50    Storm levels 
13 Apr    30    Active to Minor storm 
14 Apr    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 10 April and 
is current for interval 11-13 April. Geomagnetic activity is 
associated with the M7.9 and X2.3 flares/CMEs observed after 
1534UT on 9 Apr and 0517UT on 10 Apr, respectively. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal-fair    Fair           Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 10 04 2001 0930UT and 
is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Poor           Poor           Poor(PCA)
13 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
14 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 Apr   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 55% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Apr     5    Depressed 50-60% for high latitudes. Depressed 
                20-30% low to middle latitudes. 
13 Apr    50    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
14 Apr    90    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 10 April 
and is current for interval 11-13 April. Shortwave fadeouts expected 
on daylight HF circuits. Enhanced proton fluxes associated with 
both M7.9 and X2.3 flares from region 9415 on 9 Apr and 10 Apr 
are affecting high-latitude HF comms. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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