[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 9 09:28:59 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 169/123
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Region 9415 has resumed growth and remains magnetically
complex. Further M- and eventually X-class flares could be expected
over the following days.
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1032UT on 08 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 31 3225 5365
Darwin 23 3224 5355
Townsville 26 3225 5355
Learmonth 31 3225 5365
Canberra 28 2125 4466
Hobart 31 2125 5465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 APR :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 16 3432 2443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 40 Minor storm, with chance of isolated major storm
periods
10 Apr 12 Unsettled
11 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 6 April and
is current for interval 8-10 April. A strong shock was detected
by ACE spacecraft at 1032UT on 8 Apr triggering active to major
storm levels of geomagnetic activity. The origin of the disturbance
may be due to the arrival of the shock associated with the M5.1
flare and full halo CME observed after 1657UT on 5 Apr from region
9415. A second shock, associated with full halo CME observed
following the X5.6 flare at 1921UT on 6 Apr, is expected for
9 Apr and could possibly trigger minor storm levels of geomagnetic
activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Fair-normal Fair Poor
10 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts can again be expected on daylight
HF circuits. Degraded HF conditions observed over past 24 hours
at polar latitudes with to proton fluxes still enhanced. Degraded
HF conditions are expected for 9 Apr following the arrival at
1032 UT on 8 Apr of a shock associated with M5.1 flare and full
halo CME observed after 1657UT on 5 Apr from region 9415. Further
degradation is expected following the anticipated arrival of
a second shock associated with the X5 flare/full halo CME observed
from the same region on 6 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 100 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 150 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 6 April
and is current for interval 8-10 April. Shortwave fadeouts expected
on daylight HF circuits. Polar region HF comms still affected
by PCA with proton fluxes still enhanced. Depression in progress
at mid latitudes following the arrival of a shock associated
with the M5 flare/full halo CME observed on 5 Apr. Further depressed
conditions may be expected on 9 Apr after the anticipated arrival
of a shock associated with the X5 flare and CME observed on 6
Apr.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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