[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 01

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 9 09:28:59 EST 2001


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 169/123

GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Apr             10 Apr             11 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114

COMMENT: Region 9415 has resumed growth and remains magnetically 
complex. Further M- and eventually X-class flares could be expected 
over the following days. 
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1032UT on 08 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 08 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       31   3225 5365
      Darwin               23   3224 5355
      Townsville           26   3225 5355
      Learmonth            31   3225 5365
      Canberra             28   2125 4466
      Hobart               31   2125 5465
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 APR : 
      Darwin               36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville            4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               69   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             16   3432 2443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Apr    40    Minor storm, with chance of isolated major storm 
                periods 
10 Apr    12    Unsettled 
11 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 6 April and 
is current for interval 8-10 April. A strong shock was detected 
by ACE spacecraft at 1032UT on 8 Apr triggering active to major 
storm levels of geomagnetic activity. The origin of the disturbance 
may be due to the arrival of the shock associated with the M5.1 
flare and full halo CME observed after 1657UT on 5 Apr from region 
9415. A second shock, associated with full halo CME observed 
following the X5.6 flare at 1921UT on 6 Apr, is expected for 
9 Apr and could possibly trigger minor storm levels of geomagnetic 
activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Fair-normal    Fair           Poor          
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts can again be expected on daylight 
HF circuits. Degraded HF conditions observed over past 24 hours 
at polar latitudes with to proton fluxes still enhanced. Degraded 
HF conditions are expected for 9 Apr following the arrival at 
1032 UT on 8 Apr of a shock associated with M5.1 flare and full 
halo CME observed after 1657UT on 5 Apr from region 9415. Further 
degradation is expected following the anticipated arrival of 
a second shock associated with the X5 flare/full halo CME observed 
from the same region on 6 Apr. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
08 Apr   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Apr   100    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
10 Apr   140    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Apr   150    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 6 April 
and is current for interval 8-10 April. Shortwave fadeouts expected 
on daylight HF circuits. Polar region HF comms still affected 
by PCA with proton fluxes still enhanced. Depression in progress 
at mid latitudes following the arrival of a shock associated 
with the M5 flare/full halo CME observed on 5 Apr. Further depressed 
conditions may be expected on 9 Apr after the anticipated arrival 
of a shock associated with the X5 flare and CME observed on 6 
Apr. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list