[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M7/2B    1534UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 165/119

GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Apr             11 Apr             12 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: Region 9415 has produced the M7.9 flare and full halo 
CME observed after 1534UT on 9 Apr. It remains magnetically complex. 
Further M- and eventually X-class flares could be expected over 
the following days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 09 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       16   3333 3432
      Darwin               16   3333 3433
      Townsville           17   2333 4433
      Learmonth            21   3343 3532
      Canberra             15   2333 3432
      Hobart               17   3343 2432
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 APR : 
      Darwin               72   (Active)
      Townsville           43   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            169   (Severe storm)
      Hobart               NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        33
           Planetary             41   3146 6455     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Apr    12    Unsettled 
11 Apr    50    Storm levels 
12 Apr    16    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 9 April and 
is current for interval 11-12 April. The anticipated shock did 
not eventuate on 9 Apr as the 8 Apr shock was erroneously assigned 
to M5 flare/CME rather than the recent X5 flare/CME. A shock, 
associated with a full halo CME observed following M7.9 flare 
from region 9415 at 1534UT on 9 Apr, is expected for 11 Apr and 
could possibly trigger minor to major storm levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Apr      Poor           Poor           Poor
12 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts can again be expected on daylight 
HF circuits. Degraded HF conditions are expected for 11 and possibly 
12 of Apr following the anticipated arrival of a shock associated 
with the M7.9 flare/CME observed on 9 Apr. Enhanced proton fluxes 
may further affect high-latitude HF comms. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 Apr   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 10 to 20% at the start of the UT day,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values afterwards,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Apr   150    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Apr   100    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
12 Apr   120    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 9 April 
and is current for interval 11-12 April. Anticipated depression 
did not eventuate on 9 Apr as the 8 Apr shock was erroneously 
assigned to M5 flare/CME rather than the recent X5 flare/CME. 
Shortwave fadeouts expected on daylight HF circuits. Enhanced 
proton fluxes associated with M7.9 flare from region 9415 on 
9 Apr will affected high-latitude HF comms. Depressions are expected 
for the 11 and possibly 12 of Apr following the arrival of a 
shock associated with the M7.9 flare/CME observed at 1534UT on 
9 Apr. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060