[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 180/133

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            170/124

COMMENT: Region 9415 has resumed growth and remains magnetically 
complex. Further M- and eventually X-class flares could be expected 
over the following days. 
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1658UT on 07 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 07 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       16   3422 1443
      Darwin               20   4421 1543
      Townsville           15   3432 1433
      Learmonth            16   -322 2533
      Canberra             16   3422 2442
      Hobart               14   2332 1442
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 APR : 
      Darwin               31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               77   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   1133 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr    35    Active to Minor storm 
09 Apr    40    Minor storm 
10 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 6 April and 
is current for interval 8-10 April. A moderate shock was detected 
by ACE spacecraft at 1658UT, when IMF Bz turned strongly positive 
and solar wind speed jumped from 450 to 550 km/s, triggering 
unsettled to active levels of geomagnetic activity. The origin 
of the disturbance may be due to the M8.4 flare/CME from region 
9393 on Apr 5 or the early arrival of the shock associated with 
the M5.1 flare and full halo CME observed after 1657UT on 5 Apr 
from region 9415. A second full halo CME and type IV noise storm 
were observed following the X5.6 flare at 1921UT on 6 Apr. The 
associated shock is expected for 9 Apr and could possibly trigger 
minor storm levels of geomagnetic activity. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 0015UT 03/04, Ended at 1425UT 06/04
 and, Began at 1450UT 06/04, Ended at 1535UT 06/04
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
09 Apr      Fair-normal    Fair           Poor          
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts can again be expected on daylight 
HF circuits. Degraded HF conditions observed over past 24 hours 
at polar latitudes due to proton event still enhanced. Degraded 
HF conditions are expected for 8 and 9 Apr following the anticipated 
arrival of two successive shocks associated to the recent energetic 
flares and CMEs from region 9415 over the past two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
07 Apr   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr   120    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Apr   100    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
10 Apr   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 6 April 
and is current for interval 8-10 April. Shortwave fadeouts expected 
on daylight HF circuits. Polar region HF comms still affected 
by PCA with proton fluxes still enhanced. Depressed conditions 
for 8 and 9 April are expected following the arrival of two shocks 
associated with M5 and X5 flares and CMEs observed on the 5 and 
6 April from region 9415. 

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