[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X5.7    1921UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 192/144

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.2E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            190/143

COMMENT: The active region 9415 was the source of the X5.6 flare 
observed at 1921UT (peak) on the 6 Apr. This flare was associated 
with a full halo CME and type IV noise storm (still in progress). 
Further M-class and eventually X-class flares could be expected 
from region 9415. There is a chance of proton event associated 
with the recent X-class flare. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   2233 2333
      Darwin               11   2233 2333
      Townsville           11   2233 2333
      Learmonth            12   3233 2333
      Canberra             10   2233 2323
      Hobart               11   2233 233-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 APR : 
      Darwin                6   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             15   (Quiet)
      Hobart               14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             19   2245 3444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr    12    Unsettled 
08 Apr    35    Active to Minor storm 
09 Apr    40    Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 6 April and 
is current for interval 8-10 April. Active to minor storm conditions 
are expected for 8 Apr early in the UT day following the M5.1 
flare and full halo CME observed after 1657UT on 5 Apr from region 
9415. A second full halo CME and type IV noise storm were observed 
following the X5.6 flare at 1921 UT on 6 Apr. The associated 
shock is expected for 9 Apr and could possibly trigger minor 
storm levels of geomagnetic activity. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 0015UT 03/04, Ended at 1425UT 06/04
 and, Began at 1450UT 06/04, Ended at 1535UT 06/04
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
09 Apr      Fair           Fair-Poor      Fair
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts can again be expected on daylight 
HF circuits. Degraded HF conditions observed over past 24 hours 
at polar latitudes due to proton event still in progress. Degraded 
HF conditions are expected for 8 and 9 Apr following the anticipated 
arrival of two successive shocks associated to the recent energetic 
flare and CME activity from region 9415 over the past two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 Apr   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr   150    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
08 Apr   100    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
09 Apr    90    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 6 April 
and is current for interval 8-10 April. Shortwave fadeouts expected 
on daylight HF circuits. Polar region HF comms still affected 
by PCA with proton fluxes still lingering around the event threshold. 
Depressed conditions for 8 and 9 April are expected following 
the arrival of two shocks associated with M5 and X5 flares and 
CMEs observed on the 5 and 6 April from region 9415. 

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