[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/2F    1234UT  possible   lower  European
 X1/1N    0357UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 223/173

GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Apr             05 Apr             06 Apr
Activity     High               High               High
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            205/156            195/147
COMMENT: A mass ejection was observed with the X17 (Y1.7) flare 
from 9393. Mass ejection appeared fast and to be directed predominately 
westward. A proton event did commence at 0015UT following this 
flare and is slowly declining. The new active region on the south 
east limb produced the X1 event. This was associated with a coronal 
mass ejection which was primarily directed eastward, with some 
material curving around the southern hemisphere of the disk. 
Over recent days there has been a sequence of mass ejections 
and due to the location of their solar origins (toward east limb, 
region 9415, and west limb region 9393) the main thrust of the 
mass ejections is away from the earth. However, the earth is 
likely to impact a component of these ejections in coming days. 
9415 is expected to sustain activity as 9393 nears west limb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   2321 1212
      Darwin                7   2321 1223
      Townsville            6   2321 1212
      Learmonth             7   2-21 1322
      Canberra              4   1220 1212
      Hobart                4   1220 1212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 APR : 
      Darwin               29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville            2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             93   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              112   (Major storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20   4443 3334     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Apr    40    Initially unsettled, then at storm levels late 
                in UT day. 
05 Apr    45    Storm levels 
06 Apr    18    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 3 April and 
is current for interval 4-5 April. Storm activity is expected 
from late on 04 April, due to recent coronal mass ejections. 
Activity may not be as intense as recent strong disturbance due 
to predominately non-earth direction of mass ejection events. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 03 04 2001 0015UT and is 
	    in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
05 Apr      Fair           Fair-Poor      Fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Strong shortwave fadeouts observed in daylight sectors 
over past 24hours. Shortwave fadeouts can again be expected on 
daylight HF circuits. Degraded HF conditions observed over past 
24 hours at polar regions due to proton event. Degraded HF conditions 
expected late 04/05 Apr due to anticpated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 Apr   164

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near to 25% enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near to 25% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
      Absortption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Apr   150    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20%.
05 Apr    90    depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values.
06 Apr    90    depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 3 April 
and is current for interval 4-6 April. Shortwave fadeouts expected 
on daylight HF circuits. Lower than normal MUfs likely 05-06 
April due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Polar region HF 
comms affected by proton event. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060