[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    1222UT  possible   lower  European
 M1/SF 03/2351UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M1/SF    1027UT  possible   lower  European
 M1/SF    1159UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 205/156

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: M2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     High               High               High
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            190/143            180/133

COMMENT: The proton event associated with the recent X17 (Y1.7) 
flare from region 9393 is slowly declining. The new active region 
9415 on the south east limb produced a sequence of M-class flares. 
9415 is expected to sustain activity as 9393 has now left the 
visible disk. A disappearing filament was observed in the north-eastern 
solar quadrant. A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at
1421UT on 04 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 04 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       18   2221 5442
      Darwin               18   2221 5442
      Townsville           18   2222 5442
      Learmonth            21   2222 5451
      Canberra             18   2221 5442
      Hobart               14   2121 4442
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 APR : 
      Darwin               18   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               53   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2111 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr    30    Active to Minor storm 
06 Apr    18    Unsettled to active 
07 Apr    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 3 April and 
is current for interval 4-5 April. Active to minor storm levels 
were observed on the 4 April after the sudden impulse detected 
at 1455UT (60nT at Canberra) and are due to the arrival of a 
shock associated with recent coronal mass ejections from region 
9393. A further shock originating from region 9415 recent CME 
activity may be expected for the 5 April. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 03 04 2001 0015UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor     
06 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
07 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts can again be expected on daylight 
HF circuits. Degraded HF conditions observed over past 24 hours 
at polar latitudes due to proton event. Degraded HF conditions 
expected early on 05 Apr following the active to minor storm 
conditions observed after the arrival of a shock on 1455UT on 
the 4 April and the possible arrival of a futher shock associated 
with the recent CME activity from region 9415. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Apr   162

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr   120    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Apr   120    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
07 Apr   150    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 3 April 
and is current for interval 4-6 April. Shortwave fadeouts expected 
on daylight HF circuits. Lower than normal MUFs likely 05-06 
April due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Polar region HF 
comms still affected by proton event in decline. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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