[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 01

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 3 09:25:35 EST 2001


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  High

Flares     Max      Fadeout     Freq.     Sectors
X1.4      1014UT    probable     all      European
X1.1      1136UT    probable     all      European
Y1.7(X17) 2151UT    Confirmed    all      East Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 228/178

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            210/161            200/152
COMMENT: It appears that there is a new active solar region rotating 
on the disk on the south-east limb. The first X1 flare was from region 
9393 (the large region in the north west quadrant), the second 
flare was not optically correlated and was from the new region 
on the south east limb. The very large Y1.7 (X17) flare was from region 
9393. This region is now located N17W60, and the increasing westward 
location tends to reduce geoeffectivness of solar events. Whilst, 
this events extreme Xray magnitude implies that geoeffectiveness 
is likely, other event parameters are less clear. A less than 
spectacular type II was observed in association with the flare, 
and no type IV followed the type II radio sweep. Due to closeness 
of this event to report issue time no mass ejection imagery was available. 
Also, at this stage no high energy, protons have appeared, however, 
a proton event remains possible over coming hours. Further major 
flares and fadeouts expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 02 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       14   4333 2234
      Darwin               13   4333 2224
      Townsville           21   3325 ----
      Learmonth            17   5323 2-33
      Canberra             11   3333 2224
      Hobart               12   3333 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 APR : 
      Darwin               20   (Quiet)
      Townsville            2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               64   (Active)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             30   4563 3344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr    13    Unsettled 
04 Apr    40    Initially unsettled, then at storm levels late in UT day. 
05 Apr    45    Storm levels 
COMMENT: Available data suggests that shock(s) from recent activity 
will arrive late on 04 Apr earl 05 Apr. Forecast of geomagnetic storm 
arrival time/magnitude is difficult due to increasing westward location 
of the flaring region and lack of CME confirmation. However, 
storm activity now seems probable on 05 Apr. This forecast may 
be revised tommorrow as further event data comes in today. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : A PCA event may occur today from recent large
            solar flares.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Apr      Fair           Fair-Poor      Fair
05 Apr      Poor           Poor           Poor
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits. 
Degraded HF conditions expected late 04 April and 05 April. Polar
regions may become degraded today is a proton event eventuates.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
02 Apr   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr   150    near predicted monthly values 
04 Apr   150    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 
05 Apr    90    depressed 20 to 50%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 2 April 
and is current for interval 2-4 April (SWFs) . Strong fadeout 
observed after local dawn. Further strong short wave fadeouts 
expected today. Depressed conbitions likely on 05-06 Apr if 
magnetic storm activity eventuates on late 04-05 Apr from recent 
flare activity. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 




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