[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 2 09:32:15 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5/-- 1055UT possible lower European
M4/-- 1943UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1/-- 2259UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 258/208
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 225/175 205/156
COMMENT: Solar wind speed peaked at near 850km/sec around 0500UT,
then steadily declined to 650km/sec toward end of UT day. The
M5 xray event was not optically correlated, appearing to be associated
with a large mass ejection off the south-east limb. Direction/location
of CME implies non geoeffectiveness. The M5 event had a slow
decline, however no protons have been observed following this
flare. This event may indicate a new active solar region may
possibly rotate onto the solar disk, on the southeast limb, in
coming days. The M4 event appeared to be from the large solar
region (SEC number 9393) in the north-west quadrant. Available
data at time of issue suggests that the M4 event was not asscoiated
with a mass ejection. Further flares and fadeouts likely. Solar
flare activity may be sustained if a new region rotates onto
disk as 9393 rotates off in a few days time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 21 5542 2233
Darwin 24 6532 2233
Townsville 24 5542 2343
Learmonth 24 5542 3343
Canberra 21 5542 2233
Hobart 21 5542 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 APR :
Darwin 88 (Minor storm)
Townsville 67 (Active)
Learmonth 61 (Active)
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 115
Planetary 155 6896 7786
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 18 Unsettled to active
03 Apr 13 Unsettled
04 Apr 6 Quiet to Unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : No Event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected for today. Fadeouts
can be expected on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Spread F observed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Absorption and spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 130 near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 140 near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 140 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 31 March
and is current for interval 1-2 April. Very depressed conditions
observed over past 24 Hours in Australian region south of Brisbane.
Northern Australian region MUFs remained near normal. Mildly
degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local night
hours, southern Australian region.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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