[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 171/125

GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Oct             28 Oct             29 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            180/133

COMMENT: A CME was observed on the 25 Oct following a long-duration 
C4-flare at 1125UT from region 9199, associated proton fluxes 
are still enhanced. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   1122 3212
      Darwin                5   1122 3112
      Townsville            5   1112 3212
      Learmonth             5   1112 3112
      Canberra              6   1122 3212
      Hobart                8   1223 3212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 OCT : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1023 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Oct    12    Unsettled 
28 Oct    25    active 
29 Oct    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 27-29 October. Unsettled conditions 
were observed overnight following extended IMF negative-Bz intervals. 
Active to possibly minor storm conditions are expected late on 
27 Oct or early on 28 Oct after the anticipated arrival of a 
shock associated with a CME observed on 25 Oct following a long-duration 
C4 class flare at 1125UT. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor     
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Fair propagation were observed at high-latitudes on 
the 26 OCT due to an on-going polar cap absorption event. Depressed 
MUFs are expected for the 28 Oct following the anticipated arrival 
of a shock associated with a CME observed on the 25 Oct after 
1125 UT. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Oct   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 10 to 20% during local night,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values the rest of day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 5 to 15% during day light hours,
      Enhanced by 5 to 30% during local night,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 5 to 10% during day light hours, 
      Enhanced by 5 to 10% during local night, 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Oct   140    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Oct   120    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
29 Oct   130    about 5% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 28-30 October. Mildly degraded HF 
conditions observed during local day hours for southern region 
Aus/NZ. Enhanced HF conditions observed at Darwin and Vanimo 
during local night hours. Futher degradation are expected for 
the 28 Oct following the anticipated arrival of CME associated 
with C-class flare observed on the 25 Oct at 1125 UT. 


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