[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 164/118

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            175/129

COMMENT: A CME was observed on the 25 Oct following a long-duration 
C4-flare at 1125UT from region 9199. Proton fluxes are currently 
enhanced. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   1212 3112
      Darwin                5   1212 2123
      Townsville            4   1112 2112
      Learmonth             5   1112 3212
      Canberra              5   0222 3013
      Hobart                6   0222 3112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 OCT : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2234 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Oct    12    Unsettled 
28 Oct    25    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 27-29 October. Unsettled conditions 
were observed overnight following a IMF negative-Bz interval. 
Active to possibly minor storm conditions are expected late on 
the 27 Oct or early on the 28 Oct after the anticipated arrival 
of a shock associated with a CME observed on the 25 Oct following 
a long-duration C4 class flare at 1125UT. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs are expected for the 28 Oct following 
the anticipated arrival of a shock associated with a CME observed 
on the 25 Oct after 1125 UT. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 Oct   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20 to 30% overnight,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during the day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Slightly enhanced overnight,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during the day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 10 to 20% during the day,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values overnight,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct   140    near predicted monthly values 
27 Oct   140    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Oct   120    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 28-30 October. Mildly degraded HF 
conditions observed during local day hours for southern region 
Aus/NZ. Enhanced HF conditions observed at Darwin and Vanimo 
during local night hours. Futher degradation are expected for 
the 28 Oct following the anticipated arrival of CME associated 
with C-class flare observed on the 25 Oct at 1125 UT. 


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