[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 00
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 25 10:25:52 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 159/113
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declining to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 2234 3112
Darwin 11 2234 3112
Townsville 10 2134 3113
Learmonth 8 3123 3113
Canberra 12 2224 4212
Hobart 11 2234 3111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 OCT :
Darwin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Hobart 59 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 4344 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 15 Unsettled
26 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled
27 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Mild coronal hole induced activity declining.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No proton event in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Spread F observed, local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 140 near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 140 near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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