[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 167/121

GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Oct             25 Oct             26 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            175/129

COMMENT: Solar wind speed elevated at around 500km/sec over past 
24 hours due to a coronal hole. Solar wind speed showed a declining 
trend toward end of the UT day. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region        9   3323 2112
      Darwin                9   3323 2113
      Townsville            8   2323 2113
      Learmonth             9   3323 2122
      Canberra             10   3323 3112
      Hobart               13   3433 3112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 OCT : 
      Darwin               10   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               30   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             13   1113 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Oct    18    Unsettled to active 
25 Oct    15    Unsettled 
26 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 21-24 October. Mild coronal hole 
induced activity expected today. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected for mid to high 
latitudes today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 Oct   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Range spread and Spread F observed 15-19 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F throughout the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Oct   135    near predicted monthly values 
25 Oct   135    near predicted monthly values 
26 Oct   135    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed local night hours 
southern region Aus/NZ. Also, spread F observed 15-20UT at Darwin 
and Vanimo. Futher mild degradation expected local night hours 
tonight, southern region only. 


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