[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN      MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 160/114

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            170/124

COMMENT: Coronal hole signature has appeared in the solar wind 
with speed gradually increasing from 350km/sec around 0700UT 
to 550km/sec around 19UT. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       12   1033 3433
      Darwin               13   1134 3333
      Townsville           14   1034 3433
      Learmonth            11   2033 3333
      Canberra             12   2023 3433
      Hobart               15   1133 3443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 OCT : 
      Darwin                4   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              6   (Quiet)
      Hobart                8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1001 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct    18    Active 
24 Oct    18    Active 
25 Oct    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 21-24 October. Mild coronal hole 
induced activity is in progress, and expected to continue over 
next couple of days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected today for 
mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 Oct   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct   120    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
24 Oct   120    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
25 Oct   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs expected over next few days for 
southern Aus/NZ region, with degraded comms local night hours.


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