[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YEELOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/1N    1831UT  possible                  lower  East Pacific/
                                                   North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 158/112

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            170/124

COMMENT: Coronal hole signature in solar wind yet to appear, 
with wind speed remaining nominal. The M3 event was unexpected 
and originated from a solar region (SEC 9201) in the north-east 
quadrant of the solar disk. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region        1   1001 1101
      Darwin                3   1111 1112
      Townsville            1   0011 1001
      Learmonth             2   2001 1110
      Canberra              1   0001 1101
      Hobart                0   0000 1100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 OCT : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              6   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1101 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct    15    Unsettled to active 
23 Oct    20    Active 
24 Oct    20    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 21-24 October. Coronal hole activity 
has not yet eventuated However, activity still expected over 
next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected 21 October 
did not eventuate. However, coronal hole induced activity still 
expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Oct   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct   125    near predicted monthly values 
23 Oct   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
24 Oct   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expected Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity yet 
to evenatuate but still expected. Effects expected to be confined 
to southern Aus/NZ region. 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060