[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 00
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 28 10:16:09 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Begin End Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 2056UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 176/130
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 185/138
COMMENT: A CME was observed on the 25 Oct following a long-duration
C4-flare at 1125UT from western limb, associated proton fluxes
are still slightly enhanced.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 1121 0002
Darwin 1 1110 0011
Townsville 4 1231 0012
Learmonth 4 31-2 0001
Canberra 1 1011 0003
Hobart 2 1121 0003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 OCT :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2223 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 25 active
29 Oct 11 Unsettled
30 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 25 October
and is current for interval 27-29 October. Active, with a chance
of minor storm periods, are expected early on 28 Oct after the
anticipated arrival of a shock associated with a CME observed
on 25 Oct following a C4 class flare at 1125UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No proton event in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-poor
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs are expected for the 28 Oct following
the anticipated arrival of a shock associated with a CME observed
on the 25 Oct after 1125 UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 155
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern, Southern Australian and New Zealand Regions:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 130 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
29 Oct 140 near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on 25 October
and is current for interval 28-30 October. Enhanced HF conditions
observed at equatorial and northern Australian latitudes during
local night hours. Depressed conditions are expected for the
28 Oct following the anticipated arrival of CME associated with
C-class flare observed on the 25 Oct at 1125 UT.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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