[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 00
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 22 10:18:00 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Begin End Freq. Sectors
M1/SN 1917UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 185/138
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 185/138
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 2222 3222
Darwin 7 2121 3223
Townsville 13 ---- 422-
Learmonth 8 2222 3222
Canberra 7 1222 2322
Hobart 7 1232 2221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 NOV :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 1132 3331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Nov 7 Quiet
24 Nov 20 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 20 November
and is current for interval 24-25 November. Coronal hole induced
activity possible 24-25 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal
24 Nov Normal Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 135 near predicted monthly values
23 Nov 135 near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 120 Slightly below predicted monthly values
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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