[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 195/147

GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Nov             24 Nov             25 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            210/161            210/161

COMMENT: With the return of region 9226 M7 flare and associated 
proton event now at solar lat 10 N and long 76 E, an increase 
in solar activity can be expected over the following days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        8   3212 2323
      Darwin                7   2212 2323
      Townsville            9   4112 2324
      Learmonth             8   3212 2322
      Canberra              8   2222 2322
      Hobart                8   2222 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 NOV : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   3222 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 20 November 
and is current for interval 24-25 November. Coronal hole induced 
activity forecasted for 24-25 Nov appears unlikely to occur. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: With the return of the previously active region 9226 
(N10,E76), SWFs can be expected during local day. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 Nov   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Nov   137    near predicted monthly values 
24 Nov   140    near predicted monthly values 
25 Nov   140    near predicted monthly values 


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